Third Post

Friday July 6, 2012

The world is down again. This time on a "surprise" low jobs report.

Every time a company announces they’re laying off hundreds of workers their stock goes up as they are streamlining operations and becoming more profitable. The whole point of the "austerity" kick is to get rid of workers ( cut costs ya know ). So, every time a jobs report comes out there are less people working.

Where is the surprise?

China and England cutting rates did nothing for the market. Again, no surprise.

What the market is waiting for is some sign that someone is willing to actually underpin the Euro - to guarantee that when the Italian gov’t, for example, sells bonds in Euros they will be paid back - first, at all, and second, in Euros not Lira or whatever is the applicable currency.

The market is still willing to go up given even half a chance.

This must be what they call a "bull" market: any bull will send it higher.

However, no one is waiting to give their money to the bottomless pit. So, certainty, certainty ...didn’t that go off the air about a decade ago?

In life I’ve always found that when a system is ridiculous it’s because the people who set or use the system are making money on it. Obviously, the volatility that is created by all these imagined, rumored and manufactured economic situations is making someone somewhere very rich indeed.

The raft of lawsuits because someone rigged something somewhere cause issues of their own. First, anyone who is doing this and assuming that it ISN’T rigged is just silly. Second, the crash of the market that is created every time another crime is "discovered" does nothing to help the economy.

Second Post

Sunday July 1, 2012

Reality changes in a heartbeat.

One minute the world is black: "Stocks in a world of Hurt" says the Marketwatch headline. Then the Europeans decide that banks can be re-financed without increasing national debt numbers. Suddenly, the world is green again. The Finviz triple stock maps looks like pendants waving in the breeze - straight up and across all day.

The ups, the downs, have nothing to do with the companies in question. It’s become almost pointless to read company news - not really, individual issues still have effect. But something can drop on world news and just stay down, with absolutely no difference in sales, staffing, lunch room policies..... just suddenly be worth less because some idiots thought the Euro was a good bet. Then, Germany concedes an inch of policy. Now people are buying more shoes? Coffees? Tractor Trailers? It’s all up, regardless.

It’s fascinating to watch a stock just before it tanks or soars. For a few minutes it goes rapidly up and down. If you own the stock you have 1000 dollars, you have 10 dollars, you have negative 1400 dollars, you have 600 dollars... flashing all in seconds. Money goes from being something that represents hours of work to.... something that only exists in theory and can vanish and appear in the blink of an eye. Suddenly something like buying a 700 dollar bottle of wine becomes more comprehensible. That money could vanish tomorrow and you’d have nothing for it anyway. Twice that could appear a minute later. Meh. Whatever. If you’ve got it, splurge. Didn’t someone from Oracle just buy the 6^th largest Hawaiian Island?
　
　
Meanwhile these professionals are writing articles about technical trading patterns. Like,

"at least until the market breaks down below a Fibonacci support level within our Fibonacci Pinball analysis"

(Avi Gilburt Marketwatch Trading Deck Sunday July 1, 2012)

..... truly.

I feel like someone hearing a tarot reading.

Avi, do you wear a robe with wee stars embroidered? One piece of European news and your support levels can pinball to their hearts content.

Introduction Post

Thurs June 21, 2012
　
So, as I seem to be unemployable, and in order to trade stocks I do not have to convince anyone to buy something, or hire me, or let me represent them in some contract, or, in fact, have to deal with anyone in any way at all.... I’ve launched myself into the stock market.

Welcome to the adventures of a newbie trader.

This has to be secret, by the way. I have to keep my trading hidden from my family.

My father considers me essentially incompetent - at any rate he is so terrified of a world uncontrolled by "experts" that he is flat against any attempt on my part to handle my own money. ( He is the chief "expert" on any subject and exempts himself from all rules ). As he controls our family’s finances... let’s just say margin and I are getting to know each other real well. My sister, meanwhile, considers a belief that one can make money trading as a literal sign of mental illness. In consequence, while they know I’m "studying" the market I pretend to be very much against investing in it.